The universe is one big coincidence. Cosmically improbable coincidences happen all the time. We just don't notice them all.

- Patrick Jane

Let me start today's post with an addendum to last week: Mr Tuniak and I had stayed for dinner at the Gemini station. Captain Nemo would have been proud of what they served us. All the food was something that had lived or grown in the ocean. Our hosts insisted that we should try everything.

On Monday I still felt well, but on Tuesday at noon my stomach started to rebel. From then on I had to stay in bed until today. I don't know if there was a connection with the – for me unusual – cuisine of the Gemini station or if I had incurred a virus from somewhere. The result was that I was unable to go to Mr Tuniak's today. A friend of mine was nice enough to take over for me. Of course, she only agreed to do it after lecturing me about the way I have handled this blog. She claimed that I had ignored basic journalistic principles and that the “flashbacks” I use so often were based on pure speculation, since I had no way of knowing what had really happened and what people had been thinking. I was far too passive as well. I countered that Mr Tuniak wanted his life to be told as a story and that the readers would surely know that I hadn't been there during the “flashbacks”. But in general things happened the way I described them, otherwise Mr Tuniak would surely have complained. But she didn't accept my explanations and said that I must have slept at the university.

Allright. So I guess today we will learn how it should be done.

Mr Tuniak was expecting me in his office. After a bit of small talk, where I introduced myself, I asked him:

I: Looking back at your life – and I guess that will also be true for the events you haven't talked about yet – one can't help but notice how many unusual people you have met and how many strange places you have visited.

T (Mr Tuniak): Yes. What of it?

I: Well, it just seems improbable to me that...

T: Do you want to say that I have only invented everything I told your friend?

I: No, definitely not. I know that you have a time machine you can use and that alone is sufficient to explain a lot of these... coincidences. Or what would seem to be coincidences. But not everything.

T: Such as?

I: Let's take the Gemini Foundation as an example. You talked about it last week. You first came into contact with them right in the middle of the ocean. By accident. No time travel involved.

T: If you are not accusing me of lying, then what are you thinking?

I: Are you combining events? When you are talking about your life, are you uniting events that otherwise would have happened with several weeks in between them, because this way you'd get a better narrative?

T: You mean you'd have less of a problem with these coincidences if there was more time in between?

I: They would seem more probable, yes.

T: I'm sorry to disappoint you, but things happened exactly as I have described them. And I have even heard of a theory that could explain these – as you would call them – improbable coincidences. Come with me.

Together we drove to the time machine in the forest. During the drive Mr Tuniak was telling me where we would be going.

T: There's a Russian mathematician, named Feodor. You have never heard of him because he's been hiding from the world since the 60s.

I: Feodor? Is this his first or last name?

T: His first name. He hasn't used his last name for forty years. He has developed a theory which he calls Biased Probability.

I: Has he published about it? Are there peer reviews?

T: No, the exact details are still a secret. He wants them to be published after his death. But I have personally... tested it. And as far as I can tell, it works.

I: You tested them in an experiment?

T: In a way.

I: But you didn't check the formulas? You just proved it for one single case?

T: If you want to be exact: yes.

We arrived at the time machine. Mr Tuniak activated it.

When we left it again, we had moved to a construction site. We were right in the middle of an unfinished skyscraper, somewhere around the 90^th floor. There was no plaster on the walls, no glass in the windows and there were several places where one could see conduits in the brickwork. The building had the general shape of a pyramid and was located inside a big city.

I: Where are we?

T: Pyongyang. Ten years in the past from your point of view. We are in the Ryugyong Hotel. It can't be found on any map and the government is acting as if it didn't exist.

I: What? This is a huge building!

T: Yes, but there isn't enough money to actually finish it. It's the perfect hiding place because everyone is pretending that it wasn't here. Come on, we have to go up one floor.

There were elevator shafts, but no elevators. We had to go up a staircase. At the top a man was already expecting us. He was around 70 years old, had short white hair, small dark eyes, glasses and a scar on the left side of his face. He was Feodor. He spoke English with a strong Russian accent.

F (Feodor): Did any cats follow you?

T: No, none. I took extra care.

F: Well, well, then I am happy to see you, Lex. And who are you?

Mr Tuniak introduced me and told him that I was here because I was interested in his theory of Biased Probability. That seemed to excite him and he made a gesture to indicate that we should follow him.

I: Why did he ask about cats?

T: Because he thinks they are spies for the CIA.

I had asked the question very quietly and Mr Tuniak had also answered in a whisper. But Feodor had still heard us.

F: Project Acoustic Kitty. They trained cats to act as spies, to carry bugs and they hid their antennas in the cats' tails. Officially they've stopped the project, but I don't trust them.

He led us to a black board with incomprehensible mathematical formulas written on it. Feodor put a coin in his hand and held it so that I could see it.

F: When I flip the coin, on which side will it land? Heads or tails?

I: Both are equally possible. The chances are 50:50.

F: Wrong! It's more probable that it will land heads up, because the coin is heads up right now. Now, if I were to put it on its side and roll it on the floor, which side would it then fall down on?

I: Again I think both sides are equally probable, but I'm sure you are going to say that's wrong.

F: You are a quick study. Again, it will more likely land heads up, because it is a tiny bit heavier on the opposite side.

I: Ok. What's that got to do with Mr Tuniak's chance meetings?

F: Don't be hasty. I'm letting you in on the secrets of the universe. The first secret is: There is no 50:50 chance. One result is always slightly more probable than the other. Do you understand that?

I: I understand what you are saying, yes.

F: Now, knowing this, we have to ask ourselves: Which direction does the universe tend to?

I: Which direction? What are the two possibilities?

F: Existence or Non-Existence. And lucky for us, the universe does tend to the side of existence. I've even got proof for that.

I: And the proof would be what?

F: The Big Bang. Did you know that it is theoretically possible to create something from nothing?

I: I'm sure there are some laws of physics that forbid that.

F: I didn't say that it would be easy. But theoretically I can create a kilo of matter from nothing if at the same time I also create a kilo of antimatter. You see? It's like taking a long equation and adding somewhere +1 and -1. The end result – and that's what the laws of physics are concerned about – doesn't change.

I: But if you don't really change anything... what's the point?

F: As the universe came into existence, right at the beginning there should have been an equal amount of matter and antimatter. And those two should have annihilated each other very quickly.

I: But they didn't, otherwise we wouldn't be here right now.

F: Exactly. So it can't have been exactly 50/50, there must have been slightly more matter. And thus the universe was created. It means that from its very beginning, it contained a imbalance. Can you still follow me?

I: Just.

F: But now think about the following: What is more probable, objectively? That the universe exists or that it doesn't exist?

I: That it exists. Again, otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.

F: Wrong! It is more probable that it doesn't exist. There are a lot of factors that have to be just right. Before it came into being, there was no reason for it to do so. And this is the second secret of the universe: It prefers the improbable. It's improbable that it should exist, yet still it does. Ask any scientist you like and they will tell you how improbable it is that life was created. And yet we are here. This is the biggest paradox ever: The improbable is more probable.

I: So, Mr Tuniak's improbable meetings and coincidences are... the result of some cosmic law? A universal law?

F: Yes! He himself is the product of it. If two women have a child it should be a female. Yet he is male. He was born a hundred years before his mothers were. He was born, because he lived.

Feodor suddenly changed into Russian and started adding formulas on the black board. Mr Tuniak whispered to me:

T: He is showing you the probabilities of my life. You won't be able to talk to him for the next few hours. I hope it's alright with you if we leave now. He won't notice.

Before we left Mr Tuniak wrote on a piece of paper: “Get into contact with Gemini in May 2012 and make sure you have left this hotel before 2007” and put it on a table. Then we returned to the time machine. After we had entered, he didn't immediately start the machine, but turned to me first:

T: So, what do you think?

I: He's crazy.

T: No doubt about that. The experiments he helped the CIA with in the 60s... But that does have no bearing on his theories.

I: I'm not sure if I can believe him.

T: And you haven't even heard his theories that are really out-there.

I: Was this some kind of a test? Did you want to see how I would react?

T: No. You started talking about probabilities. You claimed that my whole life was too improbable. I just showed you that the whole world is more improbable than you imagined.

NEXT WEEK:

Why?